Quantum Threat to Encryption: CERT-In’s Urgent Warning for India’s Digital Security

Quantum Threat to Encryption: CERT-In’s Urgent Warning for India’s Digital Security

In a recent advisory, India’s top cybersecurity agency, the Indian Computer Emergency Response Team (CERT-In), raised a serious red flag about the looming threats posed by quantum computing to current cryptographic systems. The agency warned that quantum computers could render present-day encryption algorithms obsolete, exposing sensitive data — from personal information to national secrets — to unprecedented risks.

This warning is not hypothetical anymore. As quantum computing advances globally, cybersecurity professionals, businesses, and government institutions must take proactive steps to prepare for a post-quantum world.

What Is Quantum Computing and Why Is It Dangerous?

Unlike classical computers that use binary bits (0s and 1s), quantum computers use qubits, which can exist in multiple states simultaneously, thanks to principles like superposition and entanglement. This gives quantum machines the potential to solve certain problems exponentially faster than classical computers.

While this power could revolutionize fields such as drug discovery, climate modeling, and material science, it also poses a dire risk to cybersecurity. Specifically, Shor’s Algorithm, a quantum algorithm, could factor large prime numbers exponentially faster — which is bad news for RSA, ECC, and other public-key cryptographic systems.

These systems form the backbone of today's digital security infrastructure — used in everything from online banking and email encryption to military communication systems.

CERT-In’s Advisory: A Call for Immediate Action

On July 2025, CERT-In released a detailed bulletin titled “Advisory on Cybersecurity Risks Arising from Quantum Computing.” It highlighted that:

·         Quantum computing could break current encryption protocols such as RSA, DSA, ECDSA, and DH.

·         Government, defense, and financial institutions are at high risk due to the sensitivity of the data they handle.

·         A “harvest now, decrypt later” strategy is already being employed by cyber adversaries. This means that attackers might be stealing encrypted data today in anticipation of decrypting it when powerful quantum computers become available.

·         There is an urgent need to adopt post-quantum cryptographic (PQC) algorithms that are quantum-resistant.

Real-World Implications for India

India, with its vast and rapidly digitizing economy, faces unique vulnerabilities:

1. Banking and Finance

India’s UPI, digital wallets, net banking systems, and investment platforms rely on public key infrastructure (PKI) to ensure secure transactions. If quantum computers break PKI, financial fraud could skyrocket, and consumer trust would erode.

2. Aadhaar and Digital Identity

The Aadhaar ecosystem, which links biometric data with banking, PAN, and telecom, is encrypted using current cryptographic standards. A breach here could expose sensitive personal data of over 1.4 billion citizens.

3. Defense and Intelligence

A successful quantum attack on encrypted military communication channels could lead to espionage, national security breaches, or worse.

4. Startups and IT Sector

India’s thriving IT and tech startup ecosystem may not have the resources to migrate quickly to PQC. This makes them soft targets in the quantum era.

What Is Being Done Globally?

United States

The U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has already announced its first set of standardized post-quantum cryptographic algorithms in 2024. These are being integrated into government and commercial systems gradually.

China

China is investing heavily in quantum research, with some of the world’s most advanced quantum communication networks and experimental satellites like Micius.

Europe

The European Union’s Horizon programme funds multiple PQC research and standardization initiatives. The European Telecommunications Standards Institute (ETSI) is actively working on quantum-safe cryptography protocols.

What India Needs to Do

CERT-In’s warning isn’t just advisory — it’s a strategic signal that India must accelerate its transition to quantum-safe cybersecurity. Here's what must be done:

1. Develop Indigenous PQC Standards

India should not rely solely on global standards. A collaborative effort between IITs, DRDO, ISRO, and MeitY is essential to build homegrown encryption standards resilient to quantum attacks.

2. Raise Awareness Across Sectors

Many organizations still do not understand the quantum threat. Government should run nationwide awareness campaigns, particularly targeting SMEs, financial institutions, healthcare, and telecom sectors.

3. Invest in Quantum-Resilient Infrastructure

Just like India invested in digital infrastructure post-2014, it must now invest in quantum-resilient hardware and networks, particularly in critical infrastructure like power grids, defense systems, and telecom networks.

4. Skill Development

India must cultivate a workforce skilled in quantum computing and cryptography. Incentivizing STEM students to enter this field is essential for long-term cybersecurity resilience.

5. Legislation and Compliance

The Digital India Act (proposed) and Data Protection Act must incorporate clauses mandating quantum-safe measures for certain critical sectors and entities.

The Road to Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC)

Post-quantum cryptography refers to cryptographic algorithms believed to be secure against an attack by a quantum computer. These include:

·         Lattice-based cryptography

·         Hash-based cryptography

·         Code-based cryptography

·         Multivariate polynomial cryptography

Organizations must start testing and implementing hybrid systems, which support both classical and quantum-safe encryption — ensuring backward compatibility while preparing for the future.

“Harvest Now, Decrypt Later” — A Silent but Real Threat

One of the most concerning issues is that encrypted data stolen today can be stored and decrypted later when quantum capabilities mature. This especially threatens:

·         Medical records

·         Legal documents

·         Military files

·         Corporate intellectual property

If hostile actors are already hoarding such data, even retroactive security measures won’t help.

Is the Threat Immediate?

Many experts argue that scalable quantum computers capable of breaking RSA encryption may still be 5–10 years away. However, that doesn't mean we have time. The transition to PQC is complex, slow, and full of technical challenges.

Much like how the Y2K bug forced the world to rethink legacy systems, quantum threats demand a similar, perhaps more urgent, transformation.

Conclusion

The CERT-In warning is not just a technical alert — it’s a strategic wake-up call for India’s digital future. Quantum computing will bring immense opportunities, but without the right safeguards, it could also become a digital doomsday machine.

By acting today — with awareness, investment, education, and policy — India can secure its digital independence for the quantum age.